As of Monday night (and this might change Tuesday AM, at which point I’ll update this), RealClearPolitics is showing Clinton ahead of Obama in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, she’s up by 6.4 percentage points in the spread; in Texas, it’s a mere 0.3 points – Obama fans, you can breathe (somewhat) more easily. Of course, polls have been wrong before.
Over the weekend, Bob Herbert declared in the NYT that if Clinton loses both states, she’s done. If she wins both, all hell just might break loose for the Democrats. If she wins one, who knows? In this scenario he seems to believe Clinton will stick it out, wreaking some form of havoc on her party.
Let’s not forget that Vermont and Rhode Island are also holding primaries tomorrow, though, as you might expect, they don’t have too many delegates at stake. Vermont, that crazy land of civil unions and maple syrup, looks sure to go Obama, with Rhode Island leaning toward Clinton.
For those who don’t know, RealClearPolitics aggregates data from as many recent polls as possible. Whether or not you think this is a viable way of predicting election results, you can at least use the site as a one-stop-shop to check out all the recent polls.
Since these polls inevitably contain data that’s several days old, I believe it’s crucial to look at candidate momentum in addition to who’s up and who’s down. I don’t have a scientific method of doing this – maybe I should – so I just eyeball the last few weeks of polls, or the RealClearPolitics graph of average polling data, to see the direction the polls are heading. In both states, Clinton looks to have more momentum.
I’m no pro, but it seems like Clinton will win at least one state tomorrow. Something tells me this race might be far from over.
Update, Tuesday @ 11:10 a.m.: Clinton has pulled further ahead in both Ohio and Texas, according to polls. She’s up by 1.7 percentage points in Texas and a whopping 7.1 in Ohio. Will the polls turn out to have been accurate?
Update, Tuesday @ 11:20 a.m.: Ben’s comment reminds me to point out that Texas has a primary/caucus hybrid going on tonight…