Betting on U.S. Presidential Election

On the night after a Superbowl upset, in which some people made major money by betting against the spread, it might be interesting to consider the odds being given on the U.S. Presidential elections.  My limited searches suggest that Hillary Clinton is favored to win, followed by John McCain, then Barack Obama.  I would welcome suggestions on the best betting websites for these odds making purposes–not that I want to wager money, but just to see what people are willing to put their money on.  Here is at least one link http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/51363-234-3.html.

(Our colleague Steve Levitt suggests backing on the underdog.  Good advice for the Superbowl.  What about for the election?)

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4 Responses to Betting on U.S. Presidential Election

  1. jeremy says:

    The site I use–and I have wagered money–is http://www.intrade.com/. Clinton vs. Obama for the Democratic nomination has tightened considerably there in the last two days, so that Clinton holds only a 51%-48% advantage in the market-based probability of being the nominee.

  2. geoff2o0o says:

    I have never wagered, but I hear that the Iowa Electronic Markets, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/, are a good starting place.

  3. jeremy says:

    The thing is, as long as the private markets are offering identical contracts, it really doesn’t matter which one you go to because people arbitrage across them.

    I came to distrust the Iowa Electronic Markets–even though I won money off them in the 2000 election betting on Gore to win the popular vote–because I don’t think they are high enough stakes to purge out the effect of having a majority of potential people in a market want something to happen (many participants in the market were students assigned to participate). I don’t know if IEM is now in line with the private markets. If not, I give more credence to the private markets.

  4. laurabethnielsen says:

    at 10:30 am CST on Super Tuesday, Obama’s stock is going up on intrade and Clinton’s is going down —

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